Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
