Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
